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Forecast for the price of silver

Factors influencing the silver market

The uniqueness of silver is, among other things, that it is both a monetary and industrial metal; moreover, both supply and demand are characterized by low price elasticities.[1] Despite a multiplication of the silver price since the year 2003, the global demand for silver has increased by 18% until the year 2011. Against this background, the following factors, among others, will have a significant impact on the silver market in the coming years:

  • On the supply side, the finite nature of economically mineable underground silver resources will increasingly come into focus. Even if the reserve base, i.e. the amount of potentially mineable geological silver resources in the earth's crust, were to double again, it would be exhausted as early as 2045 if silver production were to increase by only 2% per year. However, it is questionable whether the resource base will increase to this extent, since due to the predominance of silver occurring close to the surface, most enriched silver deposits are likely to have already been discovered through the use of modern exploration technologies.

  • On the demand side, investment and industrial demand for silver will increase significantly, as emerging countries, among others, will have to meet their high demand in this respect. Many industrial applications are only in the early stages and new applications are constantly being added, some of which will unleash a very large demand for silver.

  • Debt, monetary expansion, and inflation will cause further loss of confidence in paper currencies and bring back the former monetary function of silver. The already prominent importance of silver as an investment and store of value will thus increase further. In addition, silver also plays a role in connection with the increasingly discussed new world reserve currency, which is to be covered by precious metals, among other things. --> Dow Silver Ratio



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Silver price projection: US$1,000 per troy ounce

If one puts the previously projected silver price of US$ 1,000 per troy ounce of silver. However, this would still not reach its real historical high  , which was also US$1,000, but in 2010 prices. The Dow silver ratio would then be about 10 (or less). The silver price could even go well beyond US$1,000 if, for example, there were a killer application, i.e. a new industrial application for which silver would be indispensable and which would have an extremely large market potential combined with low recycling potential.


This article was written by Dr. Jochen Dehio - author of the book"Gold oder Silber - wem gehört die Zukunft?

More about the author and the book

[1] Vgl. O’Byrne, M. (2009), Silver set to Soar as it did in the 1970’s (Internet: news.silverseek .com/SilverSeek/1257267140.php, Abruf vom 01.10.2012).

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